The Final Four has arrived, and with it, only one 1 seed, Kentucky, made it through to the Final Weekend.  As noted in the filling out your brackets series Part 1, the National Champion has come from a top three seed in 22 of the last 23 tournaments.  This weekend we have the aforementioned 1 seed (Kentucky), two 2 seeds squaring off (Ohio St. and Kansas) and a “lowly” 4 seed (Louisville) whose chances to do appear meek based on Saturday’s 9-10 point spread.

Here are some stats breaking down the Final Four since 1985. (ALL STATS ARE SU)

• 1 Seeds are 14-9 (60.9%) against 2 seeds or lower.
• 1 seeds are 4-1 (80.0%) against a 4 seed.
• This is only the second time 2 seeds are facing each other in the Final Four.  Last time was 1995 (Arkansas over North Carolina)
• 4 seeds are 2-8 (20.0%).  1-4 against 1 seeds.
• John Calipari is 1-2 (33.3%).
• Rick Pitino is 2-3 (40.0%).
• Thad Matta is 1-0 (100%).
• Bill Self is 1-0 (100%).

Here are some stats breaking down all of the potential National Championship match ups. (ALL STATS ARE SU)

•  The 1 seed is 5-1 (83.3%) against 2 seeds with five straight wins.
• A 2 seed has never played a 4 seed.
• John Calipari lost his only National Championship game to Bill Self.
• Thad Matta is 0-1.
• Rick Pitino is 1-1.

The Elite Eight, otherwise known as the Regional Finals, is like the NFC/AFC Championship games.  It has been said it is the most difficult game to win in the entire tournament as a trip to College Basketball royal stage is on the line with the Final Four.  This year we have three 1 seeds who have advanced to the Final 4, two 2 seeds and a 3 seed.  Therefore 5 of the 8 teams in the Elite Eight were supposed to be here.

As we noted in Part 2 of how to fill out your brackets, picking the Final Four is the hardest task of the bracket.  As you can see below 2 seeds have a less than 50% winning percentage in this round and 1 vs 2 is a straight toss up.  Ironically, the 4 seed has the best chance of making the Final Four out of all the other seeds simply because they have already ousted the 1 seed to get this round.

Here is the list of how seeds fare in the Elite Eight based on the current match ups since 1985. (ALL STATS ARE SU)

1 Seeds  (45-31, 59.2%)

vs 2 seeds (18-18, 50.0%)
vs 3 seeds (11-8, 57.9%)

2 Seeds(23-27, 46.0%)

vs 1 seeds (18-18, 50.0%)

3 Seeds (14-13, 51.9%)

vs 1 seeds (8-11, 42.1%)

4 Seeds (10-5, 66.7%)

vs 7 seeds (1-0, 100%)

7 Seeds (0-6, 0%)

vs 4 seeds (0-1, 0%)

The Sweet Sixteen commences on Thursday and all four 1 seeds will be participating this year and 11 of the top 16 seeds survived the first two rounds.  There are three double digit seeds that pulled some remarkable upsets with a 10 (Xavier), 11 (North Carolina St.) and 13 (Ohio).  Ohio became the fifth MAC Conference school to reach the Sweet Sixteen since 1985 (1-3 SU) and are also the fifth 13 seed to make it (0-4 SU).  Of all the remaining seeds left in the tournament only the 1 and 2 seeds have winning records overall in the Sweet 16.  The big boys dominate again in this round, which should come as shock, as these teams have had a week to prepare for their opponent in this round.

Here is the list of how seeds fare in the Sweet Sixteen based on the current match ups since 1985. (ALL STATS ARE SU)

1 Seeds  (76-18, 80.9%)

vs 4 seeds (27-11, 71.1%)
vs 13 seeds (3-0, 100.0%)

2 Seeds(50-20, 71.4%)

vs 6 seeds (19-6, 76.0%)
vs 11 seeds (9-1, 90.0%)

3 Seeds (27-28, 49.1%)

vs 7 seeds (6-2, 75.0%)
vs 10 seeds (8-4, 66.7%)

4 Seeds (15-31, 32.6%)

vs 1 seeds (11-27, 28.9%)

6 Seeds (13-24, 35.1%)

vs 2 seeds (6-19, 24.0%)

7 Seeds (6-12, 33.3%)

vs 3 seeds (2-6, 25.0%)

10 Seeds (7-13, 35.0%)

vs 3 seeds (4-8, 33.3%)

11 Seeds (5-9, 35.7%)

vs 2 seeds (1-9, 10.0%)

13 Seeds (0-4, 0%)

vs 1 seeds (0-3, 0%)

The first day of the first round of the tournament saw mostly higher seeds advance but that changed drastically on the second day as everyone’s brackets were turned upside down with 15 seeds Norfolk St. and Lehigh winning.  If you are following the entire nation’s brackets at ESPN, not one person has a perfect bracket through the first round.

Here is the list of how seeds fare in the second round based on the current match ups since 1985. (ALL STATS ARE SU)

1 Seeds  (94-14, 87.0%)

vs 8 seeds (41-10, 80.4%)
vs 9 seeds (53-4, 93.0%)

2 Seeds(70-34, 67.3%)

vs 7 seeds (47-17, 73.4%)
vs 10 seeds (23-17, 57.5%)

3 Seeds (55-37, 59.8%)

vs 6 seeds (33-26, 55.9%)
vs 11 seeds (22-11, 66.7%)

4 Seeds (46-39, 54.1%)

vs 5 seeds (30-28, 51.7%)
vs 12 seeds (16-11, 59.3%)

5 Seeds (39-33, 54.2%)

vs 4 seeds (28-30, 48.3%)

6 Seeds (37-35, 51.4%)

vs 3 seeds (26-33, 44.1%)

7 Seeds (18-47, 27.7%)

vs 2 seeds (17-47, 26.6%)
vs 15 seeds (1-0, 100%)

8 Seeds (10-41, 19.6%)

vs 1 seeds (10-41, 19.6%)

9 Seeds (4-53, 7.0%)

vs 1 seeds (4-53, 7.0%)

10 Seeds (20-23, 46.5%)

vs 2 seeds (17-23, 42.5%)
vs 15 seeds (3-0, 100%)

11 Seeds (14-22, 38.9%)

vs 3 seeds (11-22, 33.3%)

12 Seeds(19-17, 52.8%)

vs 4 seeds (11-16, 40.7%)
vs 13 seeds (8-1, 88.9%)

13 Seeds (4-19, 17.4%)

vs 12 seeds (1-8, 11.1%)

15 Seeds (0-4, 0%)

vs 7 seeds (0-1, 0%)
vs 10 seeds (0-3, 0%)