Archive for NFL
Top Trend for Super Bowl 46
Posted by:My top trend involving the participants in Super Bowl 46
GIANTS are 14-3 ATS as dogs in the NFL Playoffs since 1984.
2011 NFL Head Coach Fav Dog Spread Records
Posted by:Attached is a break down of the active 2011 NFL Head Coaches spread records broken down as favorites and as underdogs against the spread.
As favorites, Mike Smith (Falcons) has the best ATS record going 20-9 ATS (69.0%). Other top coaches as favorites are John Harbaugh (Ravens) at 18-11 ATS (62.1%) and Mike McCarthy (Packers) at 27-18-2 ATS (60.0%). Of the coaches with 50 or more decisions as favs, Bill Belicheck (Patriots) leads the way at 91-68-2 ATS (57.2%).
On the PLAY AGAINST end of things, Tony Sparano (Dolphins) is worst favorite coach in the NFL going 4-13 ATS (23.5%). Pete Carroll (Seahawks) is also pretty bad laying points going 15-24-3 ATS (38.5%).
The best underdog coach in the NFL of coaches with 20 or more decisions is Mike McCarthy who has posted a 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) record when taking points. Tony Sparano (Dolphins), although bad as a favorite, is a solid 19-11 ATS (63.3%) when taking points.
Other coaches to note as underdogs is Mike Tomlin (Steelers) who is 8-3 ATS in just 11 occurrences and Andy Reid (Eagles) who leads the way for all coaches with 50 or more decisions as underdogs with a 43-27-1 ATS (61.4%) record.
Get the complete list of head coaches right here.
2011 NFL Regular Season Head Coach Fav Dog Records
2011 NFL Head Coaches Spread Records
Posted by:Continuing with our review of the NFL Head Coaches and how they fare against the spread, let’s take a look at their all time Regular Season totals SU, ATS and Totals.
Their are three coaches who stick out in the spread category as money makers over the course of their career, Mike Smith (Falcons), Mike McCarthy (Packers) and John Harbaugh (Ravens). Mike Smith leads the way winning 64.6% of his games going 31-17 ATS the last three years. Super Bowl champion Mike McCarthy is second with producing a 47-30-3 ATS over his five year career, 61.0%. Finally, John Harbaugh has posted a 28-18-2 ATS record with the Ravens over his three year career which is a 60.9% winning percentage.
Furthermore by looking at all the gray beards in the league, coaches who been at it 10 or more seasons, Bill Belicheck (Patriots) has won 57.8% of his games ATS (144-105-7 ATS) and Andy Reid (Eagles) is 26 games over .500 winning 56.9% of his games (107-81-4 ATS). These are very impressive numbers.
By the way, what do all of these coaches have in common? All of their teams made the playoffs last year. Looking at these coaches break handicapping down to it’s simplest form. If you have success on the field, then you will have success against the spread in the NFL. With the SU winner of an NFL game covering the spread approximately 80% of the time in the NFL. There usually isn’t much different between the good teams on the field and the good teams at the Vegas ticket windows.
Check out every coach’s SU and ATS record along with their Over Under Record right here.
2011 NFL Regular Season Head Coach Records
The attached chart contains all of the ATS records broken down by favs/dogs for NFL Head Coaches in the Preseason.
Looking at the head coach ATS record splits in these categories, I noticed that the majority of the coaches have better records as dogs then as favs. Of the 25 coaches who have an NFL Preseason record, only 7 are above the magical 52.4% ATS mark as favorites, whereas 17 of the head coaches have beaten the ATS breakeven mark (52.4%) as dogs. This is a testament to the fact that dogs are usually a good bet in the NFL preseason.
We have been picking on Andy Reid in this column all preseason and we continue here with “Big Red” going 9-18 ATS as favs in the preseason. By far the worst record in either category. As noted above there aren’t any notable positive records for the coaches as favs with a minimum of 10 decisions. The Packers’ Mike McCarthy leads the way with a 5-2 ATS record as favs in the preseason.
On the underdog end of the spectrum, Jack Del Rio (Jaguars) is a stellar 10-1-1 ATS as dogs in the preseason, while five other coaches with at least 10 decisions are 60% or greater ATS wise in these games that “don’t count”. The list of dog loving coaches are Gary Kubiak (Texans) 8-2 ATS, Sean Payton (Saints) 7-4 ATS, Mike Shanahan (Redskins) 14-9-2 ATS, Bill Belicheck (Patriots) 15-10-5 ATS, and John Fox (Broncos) 9-6-1 ATS.
A few more important stats I notice from scouring through the chart. If you were to play the dog blindly on da Bears in the NFL Preseason under Lovie Smith, you would be 18-9-2 ATS. With Andy Reid for the Eagles, playing the dog blindly would give you a record of 28-18-2. Playing the Dog blindly in Texans NFL Preseason games under Kubiak, 13-4-2 ATS. Dogs with John Fox coached teams are 22-12-1 ATS.
Check out all of the NFL head coaching fav/dog preseason records in the official American Sports Handicapping Network chart right here:
2011 NFL Preseason Head Coaches Favs Dogs Records
To comment on these stats, please visit the American Sports Handicapping Network Forums.
2011 NFL Head Coaches Preseason H/A Record
Posted by:The attached chart contains all of the ATS records broken down by home/away for NFL Head Coaches in the Preseason.
Looking at the coaches home records, the usual suspects stand out in follow up to our previous post about overall records. For coaches with more than 10 home decisions, Bill Belicheck has gained the most units on the blind at +3.7 going 18-13 ATS, 58.1%, at home. Mike Shanahan is second gaining +3.5 units on the blind by posting a 19-15-1 ATS record, 55.9%, at home. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Andy Reid, who is just 8-15 ATS, 34.8%, or -8.5 units in front of the Philly faithful. With all of the free agent moves by the Eagles this year, you would think they would be over priced as it is this preseason. Followers of this column the last few years would think twice about backing Andy and the Eagles.
There are more than a few surprises looking at the away logs of each of the NFL head coaches. The Jaguars Jack Del Rio has the best road ATS record going 12-3-1 ATS, 80%, on the road gaining +8.7 units for all Jags road backers. (Note: Neutral games were not counted as away games in this study) A few other coaches stand out on the road preseason. Again Mike Shanahan is 19-11-1 ATS, 63.3%, +6.9 units gained. Sean Payton of the Saints is 8-2 ATS away while Gary Kubiak of the Texans is 7-3 ATS away.
There are also a handful of coaches who yet to lose a road game ATS-wise in the NFL preseason. Rex Ryan (Jets) and Steve Spanguolo (Rams) are 4-0 ATS away. Conversely, three coaches have yet to win a preseason game ATS away. Those are Jim Caldwell (Colts), Chan Gailey (Bills) and Todd Haley (Chiefs) who have combined to go 0-13 ATS on the road in their careers.
Check out all of the NFL head coaching home/away preseason records in the official American Sports Handicapping Network chart right here:
2011 NFL Preseason Head Coaches Home Away Records
