Archive for Theory
Tips for Filling Out Your Bracket Part 1
Posted by:PART 1 – NATIONAL CHAMPIONS
March madness is here and that means some of the more important decisions you will make this month will be which teams you will be using to fill out your bracket and what upsets you should pick.
In this series we are going to break down each round of the bracket which will help you become king of the water cooler in your office pool.
Today, we are going to start off with what scores the most points in your pool, picking the National Champion.
For purposes of this analysis, I am using only the SU records in the tournament dating back to 1985, the year the field expanded to 64 teams.
In the 27 tournaments since 1985, a 1 seed has won the tournament 16 times (59.3% of the tournaments). Therefore only 11 times has a seed other then a 1 seed won the tournament. Of those 11 championships, four were won by a 2 seed, four won by a 3 seed, and one each by a 4, 6 and 8 seed. So 88.9% of the last 27 championships have been won by a 3 seed or higher.
The last team to win a National Championship as a 4 seed or lower was Arizona in 1997 (4 seed) and prior to that Kansas (6 seed) in 1988. In the last 23 tournaments a 3 seed or higher has won the tournament 22 times.
Tip #1 for filling out your bracket: Don’t pick a seed lower than 4 to win the National Championship.
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NFL Teams That Covered 8 Straight ATS
Posted by:With Sunday’s win and cover over the Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers became the 11th team since 1972 to cover eight straight games ATS. Those teams that covered eight straight games ATS are 9-1 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the following game including winning nine straight games SU. The 49ers are only the second team to be listed as underdogs in their ninth game after winning eight straight ATS as they are three point dogs at Baltimore. On December 15th, 2003, the Philadelphia Eagles were three point dogs at Miami and the won the game outrigh 34-27. The last team to win eight straight games ATS was the 2007 New England Patriots. They also won the following game against the Colts 24-20 but did not cover a six point spread. From 1972-2002 the feat only happened five times, 1973 Falcons, 1976 Colts and Steelers, 1988 Patriots, and 1992 Chargers. However since 2003, this is now the sixth time it has occurred. During the last eight years, the 2003 Patriots and Eagles, 2004 Steelers and Chargers, and the aforementioned 2007 Patriots accomplished the feat.
More impressively, the 49ers have only become the 5th team since 1972 to win eight straight games SU & ATS following the 1976 Steelers, 2003 Eagles, 2004 Steelers and 2007 Patriots. Those teams all won the 9th game SU going 2-2 ATS.
Check back for more information in The Vault Newsletter for all of Thanksgiving Weekend’s football action.
The Kansas City Chiefs were shutout last week against the Tampa Bay Bucs 25-0 at home and on National TV. The embarrassment of that game led me to look up how teams reacted after getting blanked in the preseason. After not being able to get onto the board, the premise I had is that these teams would like to get some momentum going and score some points to feel good about their offense adn the overall direction of the team.
Since 1989, teams that were blanked in the preseason went 28-16-1 ATS in the following game. If these teams were underdogs, as the Chiefs are against the Ravens this week, the record improves to 15-7-1 ATS. Dogs of 6 or more points improve to 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 occurrences.
Another theory I looked at was that the Chiefs were blanked in their first game of the preseason. Figuring that these teams have a lot of work to do to catch up after being blanked in their opener, I checked how teams that were shutout bounce back in their second game. Since 1986 these teams were 12-5 ATS in Game 2 after getting shutout in their preseason opener. If they were dogs in Game 2, these teams were 6-1 ATS in the last 7 occurrences.
Overall, although these teams were embarrassed in the preseason, they bounce back strongly in their following game. The Chiefs are in the position in Week 2 of the preseason as 6 point underdogs against the Ravens.
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Home Teams in Round 1
Posted by:Home teams have a significant advantage in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Since 1991, home teams are 383-329-24 ATS, or 53.8% on the blind. Higher seeds at home are 219-181-12 ATS, 54.8%, while lower seeds are 164-148-12 ATS for a winning mark of 52.6%.
The first round has simply the biggest mismatches in the NBA Playoffs as the cream of the crop who have had playoff spots clinched for a while and may have been resting their players face off against marginal teams that had to fight their way into the playoffs coming down the stretch and are more than likely physically drained when doing so.
One of the seeds in the first round has actually posted a 66-34-4 ATS mark, 66% winners at home since 1991. Find out what seed is the big home money winner by signing up to the 2011 NBA Playoffs Trend Book.
The lines were posted today for all the game 1′s of the NBA Playoffs and 3 games are listed with double digit spreads. Chicago is laying 11.5 at home to Indiana, Miami is laying 10 or 10.5 at home to Philadelphia and the LA Lakers are laying 10 at home to New Orleans.
I dug through the database to see how double digit favs fare in the NBA Playoffs and here are my findings.
First off, you may think since these double digit dogs provide high money line odds that you get “value” and it is worth taking a shot in a game with two professional teams and a 5-1 or 6-1 payoff. Well, they do not have value and are not worth a shot. Since 1991, double digit favs are 118-19 SU in the NBA Playoffs. This equates to approximately +619 on the money line to break even.
I then broke it down to the openers of the NBA Playoffs and in Game 1 of the First Round these double digit favs are 36-4 SU since 1991 which equates to approximately +900 on the money line. None of the odds being offered for the game ones of this year’s playoffs is higher than +700, therefore stay away from the money line on the double digit dogs this weekend.
Even more shocking to me was the fact that since 1994, these double digit favs in game 1 of the opening round of the playoffs are 21-10 ATS therefore the big favorites get off to quick starts in the playoffs and do not take their opponents lightly.
According to these numbers the three double digit dogs this weekend have about a 10% chance of winning the game outright, and only one of the three double digit dogs would cover. I am excited for the start of the NBA Playoffs and looking forward to seeing how three games play out this weekend.
