In the NFL Pre-season, Game 3 is usually the dress rehearsal for the regular season.  There is an assumption in handicapping that if Game 3 is home, those teams would put up extra effort in trying to win in front of the home crowd as management wants to generate excitement for the upcoming year.  Better yet if those teams have yet to win a game SU then it would be pretty imperative to try and win a game at home to not lose the fan base.  Let’s take a look at the numbers to see if we can extract some useful information on this theory.

Since 1983, game 3 home teams are 215-156-1 SU (58.0%), however just 172-186-13 ATS (48.0%).  If those teams come into the contest without a SU win, they improve to 50-49-5 ATS (50.5%).  If the opponent has not lost a pre-season game, they are 10-12-1 ATS (45.5%).  Therefore, there is no inherent advantage of playing on a game 3 home team looking back over the last 27 years regardless if they have yet to win a game and the opponent is coming in as a satisfied pre-season team without a SU loss.  However, looking over the last decade, Game 3 home teams are just 66-80-6 ATS (45.2%) and if they are home favs, fall to a record of 49-63-5 ATS (43.8%).  So over the past decade since information and theories have been freely shared on the internet, Game 3 home teams have been overrated to the spread as the odds makers inflate the numbers since bettors will more than likely fall for this false theory.

I have also uncovered a 15-3-1 ATS and 14-2 ATS subsystem using this theory that I will be adding to the Handicapping Vault in 2010.

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The last time we were together talking football, it was the Super Bowl where the New Orleans Saints walked off victorious over the favored Indianapolis Colts.  Let’s bridge that game into the kickoff of the 2010 Football season, and take a look at how the defending Super Bowl Champions fare the following NFL pre-season.

Since 1983, defending Super Bowl Champs are 61-55-1 SU (52.6%) in the pre-season but as expected are over-priced to the number going just 51-59-7 ATS (46.4%).  So playing against the champs on the blind would have yielded a profit of 2.9 units over the course of 27 years.  This gives us a good basis to further dig into this theory and find some quality angles to fade Super Bowl winners in the following NFL pre-season.

Defending Super Bowl champs are 37-46-2 ATS (44.6%) as favorites in the NFL Pre-season since 1983.  As favs of 3.5 or more points, they fall to 23-34-1 (40.4%).  They are also under 50% as dogs going 12-13-5 ATS (48.0%) and since 1993 are just 6-11-5 ATS (35.3%) as dogs.  Obviously the defending Super Bowl champs do not have much to work on the following pre-season as they come into the season as the only team coming off the ultimate high of winning a championship in the NFL.  The majority of the time, the focus will be resting the majority of their starters and getting through the pre-season unscathed by any serious injuries.  This theory is backed up greatly when looking at totals.  By resting starters, especially on offense as there is a greater risk of injury, defending Super Bowl champs have went 23-41 UNDER since 1995.  Those numbers improve to 5-19 UNDER since 2004, and if the team is listed as dogs, they are just 1-10 UNDER since 2005.  Since the team is usually dogs on the road, there is absolutely no reason to work on much offense as there is no need to fire up the home crowd.

Given the fact that the high scoring Saints will be over-priced this pre-season, especially when looking at the totals, I will look for ways to fade them and take it under the total.

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