Archive for Theory
NFL Teams That Covered 8 Straight ATS
Posted by:With Sunday’s win and cover over the Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers became the 11th team since 1972 to cover eight straight games ATS. Those teams that covered eight straight games ATS are 9-1 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the following game including winning nine straight games SU. The 49ers are only the second team to be listed as underdogs in their ninth game after winning eight straight ATS as they are three point dogs at Baltimore. On December 15th, 2003, the Philadelphia Eagles were three point dogs at Miami and the won the game outrigh 34-27. The last team to win eight straight games ATS was the 2007 New England Patriots. They also won the following game against the Colts 24-20 but did not cover a six point spread. From 1972-2002 the feat only happened five times, 1973 Falcons, 1976 Colts and Steelers, 1988 Patriots, and 1992 Chargers. However since 2003, this is now the sixth time it has occurred. During the last eight years, the 2003 Patriots and Eagles, 2004 Steelers and Chargers, and the aforementioned 2007 Patriots accomplished the feat.
More impressively, the 49ers have only become the 5th team since 1972 to win eight straight games SU & ATS following the 1976 Steelers, 2003 Eagles, 2004 Steelers and 2007 Patriots. Those teams all won the 9th game SU going 2-2 ATS.
Check back for more information in The Vault Newsletter for all of Thanksgiving Weekend’s football action.
The Kansas City Chiefs were shutout last week against the Tampa Bay Bucs 25-0 at home and on National TV. The embarrassment of that game led me to look up how teams reacted after getting blanked in the preseason. After not being able to get onto the board, the premise I had is that these teams would like to get some momentum going and score some points to feel good about their offense adn the overall direction of the team.
Since 1989, teams that were blanked in the preseason went 28-16-1 ATS in the following game. If these teams were underdogs, as the Chiefs are against the Ravens this week, the record improves to 15-7-1 ATS. Dogs of 6 or more points improve to 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 occurrences.
Another theory I looked at was that the Chiefs were blanked in their first game of the preseason. Figuring that these teams have a lot of work to do to catch up after being blanked in their opener, I checked how teams that were shutout bounce back in their second game. Since 1986 these teams were 12-5 ATS in Game 2 after getting shutout in their preseason opener. If they were dogs in Game 2, these teams were 6-1 ATS in the last 7 occurrences.
Overall, although these teams were embarrassed in the preseason, they bounce back strongly in their following game. The Chiefs are in the position in Week 2 of the preseason as 6 point underdogs against the Ravens.
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Home Teams in Round 1
Posted by:Home teams have a significant advantage in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Since 1991, home teams are 383-329-24 ATS, or 53.8% on the blind. Higher seeds at home are 219-181-12 ATS, 54.8%, while lower seeds are 164-148-12 ATS for a winning mark of 52.6%.
The first round has simply the biggest mismatches in the NBA Playoffs as the cream of the crop who have had playoff spots clinched for a while and may have been resting their players face off against marginal teams that had to fight their way into the playoffs coming down the stretch and are more than likely physically drained when doing so.
One of the seeds in the first round has actually posted a 66-34-4 ATS mark, 66% winners at home since 1991. Find out what seed is the big home money winner by signing up to the 2011 NBA Playoffs Trend Book.
The lines were posted today for all the game 1′s of the NBA Playoffs and 3 games are listed with double digit spreads. Chicago is laying 11.5 at home to Indiana, Miami is laying 10 or 10.5 at home to Philadelphia and the LA Lakers are laying 10 at home to New Orleans.
I dug through the database to see how double digit favs fare in the NBA Playoffs and here are my findings.
First off, you may think since these double digit dogs provide high money line odds that you get “value” and it is worth taking a shot in a game with two professional teams and a 5-1 or 6-1 payoff. Well, they do not have value and are not worth a shot. Since 1991, double digit favs are 118-19 SU in the NBA Playoffs. This equates to approximately +619 on the money line to break even.
I then broke it down to the openers of the NBA Playoffs and in Game 1 of the First Round these double digit favs are 36-4 SU since 1991 which equates to approximately +900 on the money line. None of the odds being offered for the game ones of this year’s playoffs is higher than +700, therefore stay away from the money line on the double digit dogs this weekend.
Even more shocking to me was the fact that since 1994, these double digit favs in game 1 of the opening round of the playoffs are 21-10 ATS therefore the big favorites get off to quick starts in the playoffs and do not take their opponents lightly.
According to these numbers the three double digit dogs this weekend have about a 10% chance of winning the game outright, and only one of the three double digit dogs would cover. I am excited for the start of the NBA Playoffs and looking forward to seeing how three games play out this weekend.
Betting Baseball in April
Posted by:Opening day is just a few days away and the start of Baseball is a sign of spring which is a sign of rebirth, and a sign that every Baseball team including the Cubs, Pirates and Royals have a fresh start and an equal chance as every other team to win the World Series. Then again…..maybe not. However, just because we know certain teams start this season with literally no chance of winning it all doesn’t mean that you have to start the season with absolutely no chance of winning at betting Baseball this year. As a matter fact, it is important for you to jump on betting the bases early in the season to take advantage of weaker lines and odds makers’ mistakes.
The betting public and odds makers are always behind when it comes to the start of the Baseball season. After a whole season of Football, the huge College Basketball cards that are out there daily and most importantly March Madness, which is the second biggest betting event of the year, no one simply has time to study Baseball. Most people just go into the year based on last year’s finishes. The lines are set and bet into with that mindset. Teams that were bad last year will get the high plus odds. You will always play a high price for the major media market darlings early on regardless of what happened to those teams in the off-season.
In March-April since 2004, blindly betting on dogs in Baseball would have resulted in a 1,072-1,312 record for +78.42 units for every unit bet. Again, that is blindly betting on every dog on the card over the course of 2,384 games. I find this to be the most amazing stat in sports betting where you can get a return on investment of about 3% by doing absolutely no work. The worst year for this theory was 2005, which resulted in Read More→
