Archive for nfl systems
NFL Systems
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NFL Teams That Covered 8 Straight ATS
Posted by:With Sunday’s win and cover over the Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers became the 11th team since 1972 to cover eight straight games ATS. Those teams that covered eight straight games ATS are 9-1 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in the following game including winning nine straight games SU. The 49ers are only the second team to be listed as underdogs in their ninth game after winning eight straight ATS as they are three point dogs at Baltimore. On December 15th, 2003, the Philadelphia Eagles were three point dogs at Miami and the won the game outrigh 34-27. The last team to win eight straight games ATS was the 2007 New England Patriots. They also won the following game against the Colts 24-20 but did not cover a six point spread. From 1972-2002 the feat only happened five times, 1973 Falcons, 1976 Colts and Steelers, 1988 Patriots, and 1992 Chargers. However since 2003, this is now the sixth time it has occurred. During the last eight years, the 2003 Patriots and Eagles, 2004 Steelers and Chargers, and the aforementioned 2007 Patriots accomplished the feat.
More impressively, the 49ers have only become the 5th team since 1972 to win eight straight games SU & ATS following the 1976 Steelers, 2003 Eagles, 2004 Steelers and 2007 Patriots. Those teams all won the 9th game SU going 2-2 ATS.
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The Kansas City Chiefs were shutout last week against the Tampa Bay Bucs 25-0 at home and on National TV. The embarrassment of that game led me to look up how teams reacted after getting blanked in the preseason. After not being able to get onto the board, the premise I had is that these teams would like to get some momentum going and score some points to feel good about their offense adn the overall direction of the team.
Since 1989, teams that were blanked in the preseason went 28-16-1 ATS in the following game. If these teams were underdogs, as the Chiefs are against the Ravens this week, the record improves to 15-7-1 ATS. Dogs of 6 or more points improve to 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 occurrences.
Another theory I looked at was that the Chiefs were blanked in their first game of the preseason. Figuring that these teams have a lot of work to do to catch up after being blanked in their opener, I checked how teams that were shutout bounce back in their second game. Since 1986 these teams were 12-5 ATS in Game 2 after getting shutout in their preseason opener. If they were dogs in Game 2, these teams were 6-1 ATS in the last 7 occurrences.
Overall, although these teams were embarrassed in the preseason, they bounce back strongly in their following game. The Chiefs are in the position in Week 2 of the preseason as 6 point underdogs against the Ravens.
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NFL Totals Study
Posted by:The following is an NFL Totals study from 1979 to 2009. In this study I eliminated the handful of neutral site games due to numerous reasons.
| Since 1979 | O | U | T | PCT |
| 45 or greater | 559 | 644 | 26 | 46.5% |
| 46 or greater | 385 | 464 | 16 | 45.3% |
| 47 or greater | 258 | 327 | 13 | 44.1% |
| 48 or greater | 161 | 218 | 7 | 42.5% |
| 49 or greater | 103 | 138 | 5 | 42.7% |
| 50 or greater | 74 | 99 | 5 | 42.8% |
| 51 or greater | 51 | 72 | 2 | 41.5% |
| 52 or greater | 37 | 45 | 1 | 45.1% |
| 53 or greater | 26 | 30 | 0 | 46.4% |
| 54 or greater | 18 | 22 | 0 | 45.0% |
| 55 or greater | 13 | 14 | 0 | 48.1% |
| 56 or greater | 11 | 9 | 0 | 55.0% |
As you can see totals of 45 or greater have historically went UNDER the total, however as you get to totals of 55 or greater they tend to revert back to 50%.
Totals in the range of 48 to 54.5 are 148 OVER, 204 UNDER, 7 PUSH, 42.0% OVER.
Totals in the range of 51 to 54.5 are 38 OVER, 58 UNDER, 2 PUSH, 39.6% OVER.
Therefore betting UNDER on the blind on totals of 48 to 54.5 hit at a rate of 58.0% over the last 30 years and 60.4% if the total closes in the 51 to 54.5 range.
The same can’t be said for betting the lower totals OVER on the blind. The following is a chart of the result of totals at 36 or lower.
| 36 or less | 529 | 477 | 27 | 52.6% |
| 35 or less | 306 | 285 | 25 | 51.8% |
| 34 or less | 167 | 150 | 18 | 52.7% |
| 33 or less | 78 | 74 | 6 | 51.3% |
| 32 or less | 35 | 33 | 2 | 51.5% |
| 31 or less | 10 | 14 | 1 | 41.7% |
| 30 or less | 6 | 2 | 1 | 75.0% |
Check out my NFL Free Picks right here every Sunday. I am 25-7-3 through the first 4 weeks of the NFL Regular Season.
Week 4 of the NFL preseason is upon us and this is the week where most of the starters rest and start prepare for the opening weekend of the regular season. You may think that since the starters are not playing, these games will not mean anything to the teams trying to win the game. However, for the majority of the people on the field Thursday night, this is the biggest game of their professional lives, so you do get maximum effort from those players.
A huge myth that I see employed in handicapping this week is that people feel teams who have yet to win a game in the preseason try to get the winning feeling going into the season. On the other hand, teams that have yet to lose have completed their preseason work and are ready for the regular season. This is simply not true. Since 1997, teams that have yet to win a game SU & ATS in the preseason are 6-22-1 ATS in games 4 or 5. Teams that have yet to lose a game SU & ATS in the preseason are 26-10 ATS in games 4 or 5.
I also have subsets of these systems that are 16-3 ATS, 12-3 ATS, and 16-4 OVER the total in the Handicapping Vault. Sign up for the handicapping vault today.
