Aug
15
2011

Teams off a Shutout Loss in the NFL Preseason

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The Kansas City Chiefs were shutout last week against the Tampa Bay Bucs 25-0 at home and on National TV.  The embarrassment of that game led me to look up how teams reacted after getting blanked in the preseason.  After not being able to get onto the board, the premise I had is that these teams would like to get some momentum going and score some points to feel good about their offense adn the overall direction of the team.

Since 1989, teams that were blanked in the preseason went 28-16-1 ATS in the following game.  If these teams were underdogs, as the Chiefs are against the Ravens this week, the record improves to 15-7-1 ATS.  Dogs of 6 or more points improve to 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 occurrences.

Another theory I looked at was that the Chiefs were blanked in their first game of the preseason.  Figuring that these teams have a lot of work to do to catch up after being blanked in their opener, I checked how teams that were shutout bounce back in their second game.  Since 1986 these teams were 12-5 ATS in Game 2 after getting shutout in their preseason opener.  If they were dogs in Game 2, these teams were 6-1 ATS in the last 7 occurrences.

Overall, although these teams were embarrassed in the preseason, they bounce back strongly in their following game.  The Chiefs are in the position in Week 2 of the preseason as 6 point underdogs against the Ravens.

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Categories : NFL, Theory

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