Double Digit Favs in Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs

The lines were posted today for all the game 1′s of the NBA Playoffs and 3 games are listed with double digit spreads.  Chicago is laying 11.5 at home to Indiana, Miami is laying 10 or 10.5 at home to Philadelphia and the LA Lakers are laying 10 at home to New Orleans.

I dug through the database to see how double digit favs fare in the NBA Playoffs and here are my findings.

First off, you may think since these double digit dogs provide high money line odds that you get “value” and it is worth taking a shot in a game with two professional teams and a 5-1 or 6-1 payoff.  Well, they do not have value and are not worth a shot.  Since 1991, double digit favs are 118-19 SU in the NBA Playoffs.  This equates to approximately +619 on the money line to break even.

I then broke it down to the openers of the NBA Playoffs and in Game 1 of the First Round these double digit favs are 36-4 SU since 1991 which equates to approximately +900 on the money line.  None of the odds being offered for the game ones of this year’s playoffs is higher than +700, therefore stay away from the money line on the double digit dogs this weekend.

Even more shocking to me was the fact that since 1994, these double digit favs in game 1 of the opening round of the playoffs are 21-10 ATS therefore the big favorites get off to quick starts in the playoffs and do not take their opponents lightly.

According to these numbers the three double digit dogs this weekend have about a 10% chance of winning the game outright, and only one of the three double digit dogs would cover.  I am excited for the start of the NBA Playoffs and looking forward to seeing how three games play out this weekend.