NFL Totals Study
ByThe following is an NFL Totals study from 1979 to 2009. In this study I eliminated the handful of neutral site games due to numerous reasons.
| Since 1979 | O | U | T | PCT |
| 45 or greater | 559 | 644 | 26 | 46.5% |
| 46 or greater | 385 | 464 | 16 | 45.3% |
| 47 or greater | 258 | 327 | 13 | 44.1% |
| 48 or greater | 161 | 218 | 7 | 42.5% |
| 49 or greater | 103 | 138 | 5 | 42.7% |
| 50 or greater | 74 | 99 | 5 | 42.8% |
| 51 or greater | 51 | 72 | 2 | 41.5% |
| 52 or greater | 37 | 45 | 1 | 45.1% |
| 53 or greater | 26 | 30 | 0 | 46.4% |
| 54 or greater | 18 | 22 | 0 | 45.0% |
| 55 or greater | 13 | 14 | 0 | 48.1% |
| 56 or greater | 11 | 9 | 0 | 55.0% |
As you can see totals of 45 or greater have historically went UNDER the total, however as you get to totals of 55 or greater they tend to revert back to 50%.
Totals in the range of 48 to 54.5 are 148 OVER, 204 UNDER, 7 PUSH, 42.0% OVER.
Totals in the range of 51 to 54.5 are 38 OVER, 58 UNDER, 2 PUSH, 39.6% OVER.
Therefore betting UNDER on the blind on totals of 48 to 54.5 hit at a rate of 58.0% over the last 30 years and 60.4% if the total closes in the 51 to 54.5 range.
The same can’t be said for betting the lower totals OVER on the blind. The following is a chart of the result of totals at 36 or lower.
| 36 or less | 529 | 477 | 27 | 52.6% |
| 35 or less | 306 | 285 | 25 | 51.8% |
| 34 or less | 167 | 150 | 18 | 52.7% |
| 33 or less | 78 | 74 | 6 | 51.3% |
| 32 or less | 35 | 33 | 2 | 51.5% |
| 31 or less | 10 | 14 | 1 | 41.7% |
| 30 or less | 6 | 2 | 1 | 75.0% |
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