Teams playing Game 2 vs teams playing Game 1 in the NFL Pre-season
ByAnother popular NFL pre-season theory is that teams playing game 2 of the pre-season have an advantage over teams playing in game 1. The teams having a game under their belt have had extra time in camp and also had game film from their first game to work on while the team playing game one will just try to get as many players in the game as possible. As we go to the database, teams in Game 2 in the pre-season vs an opponent playing their first game are 67-40 SU (62.5%) and 58-40-9 ATS (59.2%) since 1983. However, this is not a system I would look at playing blindly because upon further review from 1983 to 1993, the theory was 30-7-5 ATS (81.1%) but since 1994, 28-33-4 ATS (45.9%). Therefore the odds makers have caught up to this theory on the most basic level.
Of course the benefit of handicapping is that we can dig deeper into this theory to see if we can find nuggets of information. If the game 2 team is a dog vs an opponent playing their first game, the record improves to 26-15-4 ATS (63.4%) since 1983 and if they are away dogs it further improves to 23-12-4 ATS (65.7%). If the game 2 teams are off a SU loss vs a game 1 opponent, the record is 30-19-7 ATS (61.2%). By combining both theories and taking a game 2 away dog off a SU loss against a team playing their first game, the record improves all the way to 13-4-3 ATS (76.5%) since 1983. Although the overall theory has struggled in the days of information sharing as the line has caught up to the theory, there are still useful ways that we can use this theory effectively.
I will be adding 12-2-1 ATS and 10-0-1 ATS sub-systems for this theory to the Handicapping Vault for the 2010 NFL pre-season and if they come into play you will be getting them with your subscription.
For more betting systems in the NFL Pre-season that will be available at the beginning of each week, visit the Handicapping Vault and purchase a subscription today.
